{"id":50,"date":"2026-07-02T22:11:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T20:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/s603816833.onlinehome.fr\/?page_id=50"},"modified":"2026-07-30T19:23:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T17:23:50","slug":"prevision-probabilistica","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/solar-irradiance\/probabilistic-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Expertise | Probabilistic forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"50\" class=\"elementor elementor-50\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-34094b3 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"34094b3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ee40037 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4ee40037\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_motion_fx_scrolling&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_effect&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:3,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_range&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:50,&quot;end&quot;:100}},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_direction&quot;:&quot;out-in&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_devices&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;laptop&quot;,&quot;tablet_extra&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;mobile&quot;]}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-66b21b3d e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"66b21b3d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3cee1b10 elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"3cee1b10\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Calibsun | Expertise<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3f7ac0a7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3f7ac0a7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"color-orange\">Probabilistic Forecast<\/span> Managing solar asset uncertainty<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ac034c1 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"6ac034c1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-387bc7ab e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"387bc7ab\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4141ff23 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4141ff23\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-36f3337c elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"36f3337c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Delivering forecast scenarios of solar power production <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e3ab6d0 elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3e3ab6d0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36-1024x656.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1742\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36-1024x656.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-36.png 1302w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3c1c0fa4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3c1c0fa4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-67eac61e text-pretty elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"67eac61e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Probabilistic solar power forecasting estimates the range of possible solar energy production outcomes rather than a single expected value. A deterministic forecasting model delivers one number per timestep (Q50). <strong>A probabilistic forecast provides a full distribution typically expressed through quantiles from Q05 to Q95.<\/strong> It quantifies the forecast uncertainty attached to each prediction of photovoltaic power output. This distinction is becoming structural for IPPs, energy traders, aggregators and grid operators, who must arbitrate between solar power generation scenarios, manage imbalance penalties on the spot and intraday electricity markets, and optimise dispatch on solar assets whose power output remains inherently variable under changing weather conditions.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The level of uncertainty depends on the forecast horizon, on weather variability, particularly cloud cover dynamics, and on input data quality, from on-site measurements of solar irradiance (GHI) to satellite imagery and numerical weather prediction (NWP). CalibSun combines these sources within an analog ensemble framework, continuously recalibrated through on-site measurements, to <strong>natively deliver probabilistic solar power forecasts that reflect the true distribution of outcomes<\/strong> rather than relying on deterministic averages that hide the variability structure.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4dbda4f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4dbda4f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eed3ea3 elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"eed3ea3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9287b08 elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"9287b08\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">CalibSun is the only forecaster to natively deliver both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts, built on the analog ensemble method and combining on-site.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Probabilistic solar power forecasting of CalibSun expresses PV power production as a distribution of outcomes from quantiles ranging from Q5 to Q95, range of Q5.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">The methodology is backed by a long scientific track record and collaboration with Mines Paris \u2013 PSL and grounded in peer-reviewed publications (IEEE, EUPVSEC\u2026).<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Operational benefits concentrate on energy trading on the spot market, imbalance management, and storage management for PV plants.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4bf8ebaf e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"4bf8ebaf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-514c036b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"514c036b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c31bfd2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2c31bfd2\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;sticky&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;sticky_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;laptop&quot;,&quot;tablet_extra&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;sticky_offset&quot;:120,&quot;sticky_parent&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;sticky_effects_offset&quot;:0,&quot;sticky_anchor_link_offset&quot;:0}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4dc9218e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4dc9218e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2167b968 elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"2167b968\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Probabilistic Forecast<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5d88568c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5d88568c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Deterministic vs probabilistic forecast: two approaches, two operational uses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c654ed4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6c654ed4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CalibSun&#8217;s probabilistic forecasting method relies on the analog ensemble, a non-parametric statistical approach.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d5c604a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4d5c604a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-61e4d131 elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"61e4d131\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"#mechanisms-key-concepts\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Mechanisms and key concepts<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-608460bf elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"608460bf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"#input-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Input Data<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1973cb0d elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"1973cb0d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"#research-past-similar-situations\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Research for past similar situations<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-757acc06 elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"757acc06\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"#quantiles-calibration\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Generation of quantiles Q5 to Q95 and calibration<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-31dfd13e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"31dfd13e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-22891dd7 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"22891dd7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-19239b2c elementor-absolute elementor-widget elementor-widget-menu-anchor\" data-id=\"19239b2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_position&quot;:&quot;absolute&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"menu-anchor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-menu-anchor\" id=\"mechanisms-key-concepts\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4fad760 elementor-widget__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"4fad760\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"332\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AWS-cloud_1.svg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1600\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-62c537f4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"62c537f4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mechanisms and key concepts<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-54a8f5e2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"54a8f5e2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A deterministic forecast produces a single expected value of solar power generation per timestep. A probabilistic forecast describes the <\/span><b>full conditional distribution<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of possible outcomes, usually summarised through quantiles. Q10 represents the value below which production has a 10% probability of falling; Q50 is the median; Q90 the high-production threshold. The Q10\u2013Q90 envelope is the 80% prediction interval that materialises the forecast uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1ec96313 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1ec96313\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3b4a721d elementor-absolute elementor-widget elementor-widget-menu-anchor\" data-id=\"3b4a721d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_position&quot;:&quot;absolute&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"menu-anchor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-menu-anchor\" id=\"input-data\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3bd2b736 elementor-widget__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3bd2b736\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"294\" height=\"291\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Data-integration.svg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1617\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6f5e83a8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6f5e83a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Input Data<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-500f35e2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"500f35e2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Building this distribution requires three families of input data:<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>On-site measurements<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> provide ground truth on solar irradiance (GHI, GTI) and local weather conditions\u00a0 (temperature, humidity\u2026), capturing short-term cloud cover transitions invisible to satellite.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Satellite imagery <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">extends spatial awareness to the surrounding cloud field.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>NWP<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> supplies the synoptic weather variables driving day-ahead production. The relative weight of each source evolves with the forecast horizon: on-site dominates short-term, NWP dominates day-ahead, satellite bridges intraday.<\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75b280cd e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"75b280cd\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57fd3b38 elementor-absolute elementor-widget elementor-widget-menu-anchor\" data-id=\"57fd3b38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_position&quot;:&quot;absolute&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"menu-anchor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-menu-anchor\" id=\"research-past-similar-situations\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f9fc4ee elementor-widget__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5f9fc4ee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"267\" height=\"294\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Image-upload.svg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1629\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1f57a6fe elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1f57a6fe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Research for past similar situations<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2afe5945 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2afe5945\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The model searches historical data for past situations meteorologically analogous to the current forecast conditions, then reconstructs the distribution of observed outcomes from these analogues. For each analogue retrieved, the actually observed photovoltaic power output is recorded. The ensemble of these observed values forms the empirical distribution of the probabilistic forecast.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This non-parametric approach has two structural advantages:<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">it makes <\/span><b>no assumption on the shape of the distribution (Gaussian, log-normal)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">it naturally captures non-linear and asymmetric behaviours of solar power generation \u2014 for instance, the truncation of production at clear-sky ceiling.<\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40734d01 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"40734d01\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6f6a3279 elementor-absolute elementor-widget elementor-widget-menu-anchor\" data-id=\"6f6a3279\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_position&quot;:&quot;absolute&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"menu-anchor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-menu-anchor\" id=\"quantiles-calibration\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-71c1d91b elementor-widget__width-inherit elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"71c1d91b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"338\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Probabilistic-1.svg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1646\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1046caf elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1046caf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Generation of quantiles Q5 to Q95 and calibration<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4bd64cd0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4bd64cd0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From the empirical distribution produced by the analog ensemble, quantiles Q5, Q10, \u2026, Q95 are extracted. Calibration ensures <\/span><b>statistical reliability<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: a Q10 forecast must, over a long observation period, be exceeded by realised production approximately 90% of the time. CalibSun validates calibration through reliability diagrams and continuous post-processing on historical data, with corrections applied per site and per forecast horizon.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8935abc e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8935abc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41d124a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"41d124a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1b7c59a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1b7c59a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What are the limits of each approach?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-018f372 e-n-tabs-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-n-tabs\" data-id=\"018f372\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;tabs_justify_horizontal&quot;:&quot;stretch&quot;,&quot;horizontal_scroll&quot;:&quot;disable&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"nested-tabs.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-n-tabs\" data-widget-number=\"1635186\" aria-label=\"Onglets. Ouvrez des \u00e9l\u00e9ments avec Entrer ou Espace, fermez-les avec Echape et naviguez \u00e0 l&#039;aide des touches fl\u00e9ch\u00e9es.\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"e-n-tabs-heading\" role=\"tablist\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<button id=\"e-n-tab-title-16351861\" data-tab-title-id=\"e-n-tab-title-16351861\" class=\"e-n-tab-title\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-tab-index=\"1\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-controls=\"e-n-tab-content-16351861\" style=\"--n-tabs-title-order: 1;\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"e-n-tab-title-text\">\n\t\t\t\tDeterministic\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button id=\"e-n-tab-title-16351862\" data-tab-title-id=\"e-n-tab-title-16351862\" class=\"e-n-tab-title\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-tab-index=\"2\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-controls=\"e-n-tab-content-16351862\" style=\"--n-tabs-title-order: 2;\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"e-n-tab-title-text\">\n\t\t\t\tProbabilistic\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"e-n-tabs-content\">\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"e-n-tab-content-16351861\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-tab-title-16351861\" data-tab-index=\"1\" style=\"--n-tabs-title-order: 1;\" class=\"e-active elementor-element elementor-element-f17807e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f17807e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4372ad5 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"4372ad5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"969\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37-845x1024.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1743\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37-845x1024.png 845w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37-248x300.png 248w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37-768x930.png 768w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-37.png 1032w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-49ba25e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"49ba25e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-150f151 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"150f151\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Deterministic<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29ea04b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"29ea04b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>A deterministic forecast model hides the underlying variability structure of the weather conditions.<\/strong> Two predictions pointing to the same expected solar energy production may carry radically different risk profiles in terms of sources of uncertainty. Under stable weather conditions, the range of possible outcomes (expressed through prediction intervals from Q5 to Q95) remains narrow. While under high variability cloud cover, this ensemble spread widens substantially. A single deterministic value cannot convey this difference and communicate the full probability estimates needed by solar players. <\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div id=\"e-n-tab-content-16351862\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-tab-title-16351862\" data-tab-index=\"2\" style=\"--n-tabs-title-order: 2;\" class=\" elementor-element elementor-element-6a68e2e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6a68e2e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5979277 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5979277\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"969\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast--845x1024.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1744\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast--845x1024.png 845w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast--248x300.png 248w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast--768x930.png 768w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast--10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Proba-forecast-.png 1032w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4c9c7db e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4c9c7db\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b85231 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7b85231\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Probabilistic<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2e86a5f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2e86a5f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Probabilistic forecasting methods relying <\/span>only on satellite imagery<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> lack the local short-term resolution required to capture site-specific cloud dynamics. Approaches based <\/span>only on NWP<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> carry coarse spatial resolution and limited responsiveness on intraday horizons. Conversely, approaches limited to on-site measurements lose accuracy as the forecast horizon extends. <strong>Robust probabilistic solar power forecasts require the <\/strong><\/span><strong>combination of all three sources, weighted according to the forecast horizon.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-37e95517 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"37e95517\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4c618f4f e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4c618f4f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7ab5396a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7ab5396a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3111459c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3111459c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Comparative table: deterministic vs probabilistic forecast <\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-db0c15f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"db0c15f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b08530d e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b08530d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8bbd369 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8bbd369\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df39ad8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"df39ad8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c7eff8e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c7eff8e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Deterministic forecast<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fdee1ab e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fdee1ab\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f0dbe09 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f0dbe09\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Probabilistic forecast<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-23c11fe e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"23c11fe\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40585d5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"40585d5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-47b899a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"47b899a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Output<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e03d312 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e03d312\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1a3f30f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1a3f30f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Single expected value<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fef0268 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fef0268\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b626d86 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b626d86\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Full distribution Q5\u2013Q95<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-172ea64 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"172ea64\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-47df3fc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"47df3fc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8518805 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8518805\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Uncertainty quantification<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0a33ce5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0a33ce5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3d3f507 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3d3f507\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">None<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a231dc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4a231dc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1f29f5a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1f29f5a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Explicit, per timestep<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5272fd0 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5272fd0\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a6b35b1 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"a6b35b1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-47b445e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"47b445e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Trading on the spot market<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f76103b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f76103b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-850a683 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"850a683\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Limited arbitrage<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ce0a6f7 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ce0a6f7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a3b1225 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a3b1225\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Risk-adjusted bidding (Q30, Q70, adaptive methods)<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cd6afc0 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"cd6afc0\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1238c5c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1238c5c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-afc438f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"afc438f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Imbalance management<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b3aa29d e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b3aa29d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b29467a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b29467a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Reactive<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-11e082e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"11e082e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9e9cda7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9e9cda7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Anticipated, quantified<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-67a85fb e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"67a85fb\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e904f54 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e904f54\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-71bd8bd elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"71bd8bd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Storage \/ hybridisation control<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b177d3c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b177d3c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c84366 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2c84366\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Not optimal<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57c059b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"57c059b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7978d68 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7978d68\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Risk-based optimisation<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cc706d4 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"cc706d4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65cc37d e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"65cc37d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-527ca90 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"527ca90\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Data sources<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4b05ab3 e-con-full e-transform e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4b05ab3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;_transform_skewX_effect&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewX_effect_laptop&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewX_effect_tablet_extra&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewX_effect_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewX_effect_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewY_effect&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewY_effect_laptop&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewY_effect_tablet_extra&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewY_effect_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_skewY_effect_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;deg&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f642581 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f642581\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Often satellite-only<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0403317 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0403317\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-897a16f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"897a16f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">On-site data + satellite + NWP<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5ae12b5 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"5ae12b5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c259412 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c259412\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8ce5d8d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8ce5d8d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"color-orange\">Building the probabilistic model:<\/span> CalibSun's scientific approach<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-53b5f6b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"53b5f6b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ced0179 elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ced0179\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Our market differentiation<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fd7651a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fd7651a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CalibSun is currently the <\/span><b>only forecaster to natively deliver both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from a single integrated model.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expected value serves as the deterministic reference for standard operational monitoring;<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Q5 to Q95 provide the uncertainty envelope for risk-based decision-making.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>This dual output is enabled by the analog ensemble approach, which produces the distribution directly \u2014 the deterministic value is a by-product, not a separate model.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A second differentiator is <\/span><b>continuous recalibration through on-site measurements<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Pyranometers and sky imagers installed on the PV plant feed the model in real time, adjusting the distribution to the actual local solar resource behaviour. This recalibration is decisive on multi-GW portfolios, where small biases compound rapidly into significant imbalance exposure.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-240111f e-con-full e-grid e-con e-child\" data-id=\"240111f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2ff7ad9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2ff7ad9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>Related Scientific publications<\/h4><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The methodology draws on peer-reviewed publications covering probabilistic solar forecasting using quantile regression, weather scenario generation, analog ensemble approaches and reliability assessment of probabilistic forecasts published in IEEE journals or presented at scientific conferences such as EUPVSEC and other technical reviews on energy forecasting and solar photovoltaic systems <\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-90d0c14 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"90d0c14\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>Internal CalibSun research\u200b<\/h4><p>CalibSun&#8217;s probabilistic forecasting method is grounded in long-running research on solar resource assessment lead by PhD data scientist Thomas Carri\u00e8re on analog ensemble techniques applied to photovoltaic power.<br \/><b>The model was developed in scientific collaboration with Persee (Mines Paris \u2013 PSL), a reference laboratory in solar energy and atmospheric data processing, ensuring methodological rigour on the analog selection function, the calibration framework and the validation protocols.<\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4bfdb0a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4bfdb0a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Backed by Research &amp; Science<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2131cdb elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"2131cdb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/tag-scientific-publications\/probabilistic\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">See related publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d27d229 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d27d229\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b353f2d e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b353f2d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76a1a71 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"76a1a71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"color-orange\">Probabilistic forecast:<\/span> Operational use cases<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-94f5159 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"94f5159\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e242cca elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e242cca\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"745\" height=\"635\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Trading-and-agg-55.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-2683\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Trading-and-agg-55.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Trading-and-agg-55-300x256.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Trading-and-agg-55-14x12.jpg 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 745px) 100vw, 745px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ddf5969 e-con-full e-flex elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ddf5969\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInRight&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3fced38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3fced38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Trading, balancing and imbalance penalties<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c624553 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c624553\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the spot electricity markets, probabilistic forecasts allow energy traders to position bids on the quantile minimising expected imbalance cost. When penalties are asymmetric, heavier for over-production than under-production, or vice versa,\u00a0 the <\/span><b>optimal bid is rarely Q50 median<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: it is the quantile aligning with the penalty structure (Q30, Q40, Q70 depending on the market conditions and conditional probability assessments). This optimization of bid strategy is impossible with a deterministic forecasting model.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5fee9e3 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5fee9e3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6d4dc25 e-con-full e-flex elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6d4dc25\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0bf299f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0bf299f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Storage, hybridisation and dimensioning<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5ef8c47 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5ef8c47\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For PV plants coupled with battery storage or hybridised with wind, probabilistic forecasts feed <\/span><b>energy management systems<\/b> <b>with the input required for risk-based dispatch<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Probabilistic forecasting methods are relevant at the operational stage to optimise BESS charge\/discharge cycle decisions and therefore to maximise solar energy storage system lifetime.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-31dde9c elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"31dde9c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"745\" height=\"635\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Instant-now-17.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-2659\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Instant-now-17.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Instant-now-17-300x256.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Export_Instant-now-17-14x12.jpg 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 745px) 100vw, 745px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30eb687b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"30eb687b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6826219e elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"6826219e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"721\" height=\"868\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Mask-group-1.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1827\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Mask-group-1.webp 721w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Mask-group-1-249x300.webp 249w, https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Mask-group-1-10x12.webp 10w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1cc722dc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1cc722dc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7fd0306e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7fd0306e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e548848 elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"3e548848\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Questions<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5227e4da elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5227e4da\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Frequently Asked Questions about probabilistic forecast<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1d1c0b0f elementor-widget elementor-widget-n-accordion\" data-id=\"1d1c0b0f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;default_state&quot;:&quot;all_collapsed&quot;,&quot;max_items_expended&quot;:&quot;one&quot;,&quot;n_accordion_animation_duration&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;ms&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:400,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"nested-accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-n-accordion\" aria-label=\"Accordion. Open links with Enter or Space, close with Escape, and navigate with Arrow Keys\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-4880\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"1\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-4880\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><h3 class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> What are the benefits of probabilistic forecasts? <\/h3><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 11.6351L31.5103 27.0167C32.1857 28.5487 33.3677 30.1421 35 31L33.1989 31C30.3846 31 27.8518 29.2228 26.6135 26.4652L20.8724 13.1671C20.8724 13.1671 20.591 12.6769 20.0844 12.7382C19.5779 12.7382 19.2964 13.1671 19.2964 13.1671L13.5553 26.4652C12.3734 29.2228 9.78424 31 6.96998 31L5 31C6.63227 30.1421 7.81426 28.5487 8.48968 27.0167L15.3002 11.6351C16.0882 9.61282 18.7899 9 19.9719 9C21.1538 9 23.8555 9.55153 24.6435 11.6351L24.6998 11.6351Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 28.3649L31.5103 12.9833C32.1857 11.4513 33.3677 9.85794 35 9L33.1989 9C30.3846 9 27.8518 10.7772 26.6135 13.5348L20.8724 26.8329C20.8724 26.8329 20.591 27.3231 20.0844 27.2618C19.5779 27.2618 19.2964 26.8329 19.2964 26.8329L13.5553 13.5348C12.3734 10.7772 9.78424 9 6.96998 9L5 9C6.63227 9.85794 7.81426 11.4513 8.48968 12.9833L15.3002 28.3649C16.0882 30.3872 18.7899 31 19.9719 31C21.1538 31 23.8555 30.4485 24.6435 28.3649L24.6998 28.3649Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-4880\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-977eecf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"977eecf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42a204fb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"42a204fb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Probabilistic forecasts provide explicit quantification of uncertainty, enabling risk-adjusted decisions in trading on the spot market, energy management, imbalance reduction, and storage dispatch. They improve operational performance compared to deterministic outputs by exposing the range of plausible power output scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-4881\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"2\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-4881\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><h3 class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> Does CalibSun produce both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts? <\/h3><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 11.6351L31.5103 27.0167C32.1857 28.5487 33.3677 30.1421 35 31L33.1989 31C30.3846 31 27.8518 29.2228 26.6135 26.4652L20.8724 13.1671C20.8724 13.1671 20.591 12.6769 20.0844 12.7382C19.5779 12.7382 19.2964 13.1671 19.2964 13.1671L13.5553 26.4652C12.3734 29.2228 9.78424 31 6.96998 31L5 31C6.63227 30.1421 7.81426 28.5487 8.48968 27.0167L15.3002 11.6351C16.0882 9.61282 18.7899 9 19.9719 9C21.1538 9 23.8555 9.55153 24.6435 11.6351L24.6998 11.6351Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 28.3649L31.5103 12.9833C32.1857 11.4513 33.3677 9.85794 35 9L33.1989 9C30.3846 9 27.8518 10.7772 26.6135 13.5348L20.8724 26.8329C20.8724 26.8329 20.591 27.3231 20.0844 27.2618C19.5779 27.2618 19.2964 26.8329 19.2964 26.8329L13.5553 13.5348C12.3734 10.7772 9.78424 9 6.96998 9L5 9C6.63227 9.85794 7.81426 11.4513 8.48968 12.9833L15.3002 28.3649C16.0882 30.3872 18.7899 31 19.9719 31C21.1538 31 23.8555 30.4485 24.6435 28.3649L24.6998 28.3649Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-4881\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4fc19707 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4fc19707\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30edd94c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"30edd94c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yes. CalibSun\u2019s forecasts services NEXT and INSTANT provide deterministic (expected value) and probabilistic distribution natively from Q5 to Q95 uncertainty envelope. This dual output supports both standard operational monitoring and advanced risk-based decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-4882\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"3\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-4882\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><h3 class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> How is the reliability of probabilistic forecasts validated? <\/h3><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 11.6351L31.5103 27.0167C32.1857 28.5487 33.3677 30.1421 35 31L33.1989 31C30.3846 31 27.8518 29.2228 26.6135 26.4652L20.8724 13.1671C20.8724 13.1671 20.591 12.6769 20.0844 12.7382C19.5779 12.7382 19.2964 13.1671 19.2964 13.1671L13.5553 26.4652C12.3734 29.2228 9.78424 31 6.96998 31L5 31C6.63227 30.1421 7.81426 28.5487 8.48968 27.0167L15.3002 11.6351C16.0882 9.61282 18.7899 9 19.9719 9C21.1538 9 23.8555 9.55153 24.6435 11.6351L24.6998 11.6351Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 28.3649L31.5103 12.9833C32.1857 11.4513 33.3677 9.85794 35 9L33.1989 9C30.3846 9 27.8518 10.7772 26.6135 13.5348L20.8724 26.8329C20.8724 26.8329 20.591 27.3231 20.0844 27.2618C19.5779 27.2618 19.2964 26.8329 19.2964 26.8329L13.5553 13.5348C12.3734 10.7772 9.78424 9 6.96998 9L5 9C6.63227 9.85794 7.81426 11.4513 8.48968 12.9833L15.3002 28.3649C16.0882 30.3872 18.7899 31 19.9719 31C21.1538 31 23.8555 30.4485 24.6435 28.3649L24.6998 28.3649Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-4882\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-723b5394 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"723b5394\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5cd7cb37 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5cd7cb37\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reliability is validated through reliability diagrams and statistical analysis on historical data: a Q10 forecast should be exceeded by realised production approximately 90% of the time over a long observation period. CalibSun applies continuous recalibration per site and per forecast horizon to maintain this statistical consistency.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-4883\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"4\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-4883\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><h3 class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> What are the other applications of these probability forecasts beyond trading? <\/h3><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 11.6351L31.5103 27.0167C32.1857 28.5487 33.3677 30.1421 35 31L33.1989 31C30.3846 31 27.8518 29.2228 26.6135 26.4652L20.8724 13.1671C20.8724 13.1671 20.591 12.6769 20.0844 12.7382C19.5779 12.7382 19.2964 13.1671 19.2964 13.1671L13.5553 26.4652C12.3734 29.2228 9.78424 31 6.96998 31L5 31C6.63227 30.1421 7.81426 28.5487 8.48968 27.0167L15.3002 11.6351C16.0882 9.61282 18.7899 9 19.9719 9C21.1538 9 23.8555 9.55153 24.6435 11.6351L24.6998 11.6351Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" viewBox=\"0 0 40 40\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M24.6998 28.3649L31.5103 12.9833C32.1857 11.4513 33.3677 9.85794 35 9L33.1989 9C30.3846 9 27.8518 10.7772 26.6135 13.5348L20.8724 26.8329C20.8724 26.8329 20.591 27.3231 20.0844 27.2618C19.5779 27.2618 19.2964 26.8329 19.2964 26.8329L13.5553 13.5348C12.3734 10.7772 9.78424 9 6.96998 9L5 9C6.63227 9.85794 7.81426 11.4513 8.48968 12.9833L15.3002 28.3649C16.0882 30.3872 18.7899 31 19.9719 31C21.1538 31 23.8555 30.4485 24.6435 28.3649L24.6998 28.3649Z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-4883\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-307dd4c5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"307dd4c5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9f58073 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9f58073\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anticipating electricity generation is mandatory for optimising renewable energy management. By providing a range of power output rather than a single value, Calibsun helps make solar energy steerable and to optimize its integration within the energy grid, with or without storage.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are the benefits of probabilistic forecasts?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Probabilistic forecasts provide explicit quantification of uncertainty, enabling risk-adjusted decisions in trading on the spot market, energy management, imbalance reduction, and storage dispatch. 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A deterministic forecasting model delivers one number per timestep (Q50). A probabilistic forecast provides a full distribution typically expressed through [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"parent":52,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-50","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/50","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/50\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/52"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}