{"id":4038,"date":"2026-08-13T10:14:50","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T08:14:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/?p=4038"},"modified":"2026-08-13T14:51:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T12:51:34","slug":"%e7%8b%ac%e7%ab%8b%e5%9f%ba%e5%87%86%e6%97%a5%e5%86%85%e5%a4%aa%e9%98%b3%e8%83%bd%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/independent-benchmark-intraday-solar-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u771f\u6b63\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u6b27\u6d32\u72ec\u7acb\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6765\u8bc4\u5224\u7684\u3002\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u6309\u533a\u5757\u9010\u4e00\u7ed3\u7b97\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u5757\u4e3a\u5341\u4e94\u5206\u949f\u3002 \u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u7f5a\u91d1\u6570\u989d\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u591a\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u533a\u5757\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u504f\u5dee\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u7535\u5382\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b9e\u9645\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u6309\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u6bb5\u9010\u4e00\u8861\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002.<\/p>\n<h2>\u57fa\u51c6<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e00\u5bb6\u6b27\u6d32\u72ec\u7acb\u7535\u529b\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u5bf9\u5176\u81ea\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u7684\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u670d\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u5546\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff1a\u8be5\u7ec4\u5408\u5305\u62ec30\u5ea7\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u4e1a\u7ea7\u7535\u7ad9\uff0c\u5728\u4e3a\u671f\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e03\u5bb6\u670d\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u5546\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u76f2\u6d4b\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u56db\u9879\u8bef\u5dee\u6307\u6807\u3002CalibSun\u662f\u8fd9\u4e03\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u5546\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u5176\u4f59\u516d\u5bb6\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u53ca\u8be5\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u5728\u6b64\u5747\u4e88\u4ee5\u533f\u540d\u5904\u7406\u3002\u5982\u9700\u83b7\u53d6\u5b8c\u6574\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u8bf7\u7b7e\u7f72\u4fdd\u5bc6\u534f\u8bae\uff08NDA\uff09\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u7533\u8bf7\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5e76\u975e\u7531\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e5f\u975e\u7531\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u529e\uff0c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u67e5\u770b\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u63d0\u4ea4\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6536\u5230\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u6587\u4ef6\u3002.<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\uff1a\u5728\u4e03\u9879\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e5\u5185\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/benchmark_intraday_web_v9-scaled.png\" alt=\"\u72ec\u7acb\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff1a\u5728nMAE\u3001nRMSE\u3001nBIAS\u548cnS1\u7b49\u6307\u6807\u7684\u65e5\u5185\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\uff0cCalibSun\u5728\u4e03\u5bb6\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u3002\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u5728\u4ee5\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\uff08normalised mean absolute error\uff09\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u65e5\u5185\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u65b9\u9762\uff0cCalibSun\u5728\u4e03\u5bb6\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u5747\u65b9\u6839\u8bef\u5dee\uff08nRMSE\uff09\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u540c\u6837\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u5176\u504f\u5dee\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff1a\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f60\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u672c\u5e94\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\u3002.<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u679c\u4e8c\uff1a\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u8d44\u91d1\u6240\u5728\u4e4b\u5904<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/benchmark_skill_horizon_web_v2-scaled.png\" alt=\"\u6309\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u6bb5\u5212\u5206\u7684\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u670d\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u5546\u76f8\u6bd4\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u8bc4\u5206\uff1a5\u5206\u949f\u65f6\u4e3a46%\uff0c15\u5206\u949f\u65f6\u4e3a33%\uff0c8\u5c0f\u65f6\u65f6\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6536\u655b\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u82e5\u5c06\u5404\u7ed3\u7b97\u65f6\u6bb5\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u6717\u4e86\u3002 CalibSun\u5c065\u5206\u949f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u964d\u4f4e\u4e8646%\uff0c\u5c0615\u5206\u949f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u964d\u4f4e\u4e8633%\u2014\u2014\u800c15\u5206\u949f\u6b63\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7ed3\u7b97\u5468\u671f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u6700\u521d\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u59cb\u7ec8\u4fdd\u6301\u572820%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u9010\u6e10\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u5e76\u57288\u5c0f\u65f6\u65f6\u6d88\u5931\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u503c\u5f97\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u5f53\u5730\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u5728\u65e5\u524d\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u58f0\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u62e5\u6709\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u52bf\u3002 \u9996\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5219\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u80dc\u8d1f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5927\u5bb6\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u7edd\u975e\u5de7\u5408\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u65e5\u5185\u5934\u5bf8\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u504f\u5dee\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u7b97\u3002.<\/p>\n<h2>\u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316<\/h2>\n<p>\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u65f6\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u591a\u5409\u74e6\u7ea7\u90e8\u7f72\u4e2d\uff0cNEXT \u5c06\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u7f5a\u91d1\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86 18%\uff0c\u5e76\u6bcf\u5e74\u6bcf\u5409\u74e6\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7 $500k \u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u3002 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u572830\u5206\u949f\u5185\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ad9\u70b9\uff0cINSTANT\u5229\u7528\u7531\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ad9\u70b97\u53f0\u6444\u50cf\u5934\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u5929\u7a7a\u6210\u50cf\u4eea\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5728\u5373\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u6bb5\u5185\uff0c\u5728NEXT\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e8620%\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002.<\/p>\n<h2>\u8bf7\u6838\u5b9e<\/h2>\n<p>\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u53ea\u6709\u7ecf\u5f97\u8d77\u63a8\u6572\uff0c\u624d\u5177\u6709\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5b8c\u6574\u62a5\u544a\uff08\u5305\u542b\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u53ca\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u7b7e\u7f72\u4fdd\u5bc6\u534f\u8bae\u540e\u5e94\u8981\u6c42\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u8fd0\u8425\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e76\u5e0c\u671b\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u60a8\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/%e8%81%94%e7%b3%bb\/\">\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u9879\u72ec\u7acb\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u670d\u52a1\u5728\u4e03\u5bb6\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u4e2d\u65e5\u95f4\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u300215\u5206\u949f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u964d\u81f333%\uff0c5\u5206\u949f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u964d\u81f346%\u3002.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4063,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecast-nowcast"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4038"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4038\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4060,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4038\/revisions\/4060"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}