{"id":720,"date":"2023-05-03T22:42:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T20:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/?p=720"},"modified":"2026-08-04T16:59:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T14:59:13","slug":"%e5%a4%aa%e9%98%b3%e8%83%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e9%a2%84%e6%8a%a5%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/probabilistic-forecast-method-solar-energy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"720\" class=\"elementor elementor-720\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-14df7c8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"14df7c8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9b1280b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9b1280b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d2425b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4d2425b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u672c\u6587\u8981\u70b9<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5cc2c52 elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"5cc2c52\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u503c<\/b>, \u5176\u4e2d\u5e76\u672a\u5305\u542b\u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u56fa\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u7b49\u53ef\u53d8\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u64cd\u4f5c\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u7528\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u5e03\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/b><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u8f93\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c<\/b>, \uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u754c\u5b9a\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u6982\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea7\u91cf\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u843d\u5728\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-circle\" viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M256 8C119 8 8 119 8 256s111 248 248 248 248-111 248-248S393 8 256 8z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\"><b>CalibSun \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u5b9e\u65f6\u6c14\u8c61\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408<\/b>, \u901a\u8fc7\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u4e0d\u65ad\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u5929\u6c14\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u9884\u62a5\u65f6\u6bb5\u4e0b\u90fd\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u6821\u51c6\u3002<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eead81c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"eead81c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-15da686 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"15da686\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u8db3\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0d4ada8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0d4ada8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u9488\u5bf9\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u7ed9\u51fa\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u867d\u7136\u7b80\u5355\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\uff1a\u5b83\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8303\u56f4\u3002 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u5149\u4f0f\u53d1\u7535\u8fd9\u6837\u53d8\u6570\u6781\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u2014\u2014\u5176\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e91\u91cf\u3001\u8f90\u7167\u5ea6\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u77ac\u606f\u4e07\u53d8\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u6761\u4ef6\u2014\u2014\u4ec5\u51ed\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u662f\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa9e8b4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"aa9e8b4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2edd4a9 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2edd4a9\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40065aa elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"40065aa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u9690\u85cf\u7684 <span class=\"color-orange\">\u64cd\u4f5c\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c5657c3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c5657c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b><i>\u5f53\u7535\u7f51\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u50a8\u80fd\u7ba1\u7406\u51b3\u7b56\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u9690\u542b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5c31\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u8fd0\u8425\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/i><\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u663e\u793a\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u5185\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u4e3a80\u5146\u74e6\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u8bf4\u660e\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u7535\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u80fd\u5408\u7406\u5730\u843d\u572850\u5146\u74e6\u81f3110\u5146\u74e6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u3002 \u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\u53d1\u6325\u5176\u6700\u5207\u5b9e\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-382ef20 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"382ef20\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-092842d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"092842d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">A <span class=\"color-orange\">\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u9519\u914d<\/span> \u4ece\u66f4\u957f\u8fdc\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7b47da elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d7b47da\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u968f\u7740\u9884\u62a5\u65f6\u6548\u7684\u5ef6\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u53d8\u5f97\u6108\u53d1\u663e\u8457\u3002\u5728\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u65f6\u6548\u5185\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\u66f4\u96be\u7cbe\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8303\u56f4\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6269\u5927\u3002 <\/span><b>\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u7f3a\u4e4f\u53cd\u6620\u8fd9\u79cd\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u673a\u5236<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u8f93\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\u5bf9\u8be5\u6570\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff1b\u800c\u662f\u8be5\u5de5\u5177\u4e0e\u5176\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e788a98 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e788a98\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-60c636c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"60c636c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684 <span class=\"color-orange\">\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/span><\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b647f2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b647f2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709 <\/span><b>\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u4e3a\u4e86\u6a21\u62df\u5927\u6c14\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4e2a\u70b9\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4ee5GFS\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf <\/span><b>7\u520630\u79d2<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \uff0c\u5728\u6700\u957f\u4e3a <\/span><b>15\u5929<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e <\/span><b>2,880 \u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8d85\u8fc7 <\/span><b>150\u4e2a\u6c14\u8c61\u53d8\u91cf<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014\u2014\u7531\u4e8e\u6bcf\u9879\u4efb\u52a1\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u5b66\u8fd0\u7b97\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u5b58\u50a8\u5bb9\u91cf\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0d\u8a00\u800c\u55bb\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab14b65 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ab14b65\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-544114d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"544114d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7c13538 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7c13538\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fffa067 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fffa067\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u7528\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u5e03\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u5355\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5168\u9762\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e0e\u5176\u95ee\u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f1a\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201c\uff0c\u5b83\u95ee\u9053\uff1a\u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8be5\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u670d\u4ece\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff1f<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201c<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u8f93\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7531\u4e0b\u9650\u548c\u4e0a\u9650\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u3001\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f62\u5f0f\u90fd\u80fd\u5c06\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u660e\u786e\u5448\u73b0\u5e76\u4f7f\u5176\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b2f552e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b2f552e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f57a7fa elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f57a7fa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u6df7\u51dd\u571f <span class=\"color-orange\">\u8fd0\u8425\u540e\u679c<\/span> \n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a77ac2b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a77ac2b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u800c\u975e\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7535\u7f51\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u9488\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u53d1\u7535\u60c5\u666f\u8303\u56f4\u8fdb\u884c\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u672a\u6765\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u76f4\u63a5\u7eb3\u5165\u5b9a\u4ef7\u548c\u5957\u671f\u4fdd\u503c\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u3002\u50a8\u80fd\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u5236\u5b9a\u8c03\u5ea6\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u88ab\u52a8\u5e94\u5bf9\u7a81\u53d1\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/p><p><b><i>\u5728\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fd8\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u6bcf\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u79f0\u4e14\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/i><\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c2d9806 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c2d9806\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d4488c3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d4488c3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u5b9e\u65f6 <span class=\"color-orange\"> \u9002\u5e94\u6027<\/span> \n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-406f8ca elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"406f8ca\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This approach is also inherently adaptive. As new meteorological data becomes available, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6765\u81ea\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u536b\u661f\u5f71\u50cf\u6216\u5730\u9762\u4f20\u611f\u5668<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014\u2014\u8be5\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6846\u67b6\u53ef\u5b9e\u65f6\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u6bb5\u5185\u59cb\u7ec8\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e14\u6821\u51c6\u5f97\u5f53\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u662f\u5176\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9759\u6001\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u82e5\u4e0d\u8fdb\u884c\u5b8c\u5168\u91cd\u65b0\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u4fbf\u65e0\u6cd5\u52a8\u6001\u7eb3\u5165\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5149\u4f0f\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u66f4\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u66f4\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3001\u66f4\u4f18\u5316\u7684\u50a8\u80fd\u4e0e\u5e73\u8861\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u52a8\u6001\u89c4\u5212\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c952c14 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c952c14\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e34f86 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6e34f86\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6027\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ff4985e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ff4985e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><b><i>\u5728 CalibSun\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5b9e\u65f6\u6c14\u8c61\u6570\u636e\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f1a\u751f\u6210\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u62a5\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u800c\u6301\u7eed\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u884c\u4e1a\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u5206\u6790\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u505a\u51fa\u65e2\u5145\u6ee1\u4fe1\u5fc3\u53c8\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/i><\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5bb53f2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5bb53f2\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2af821d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2af821d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\n<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5ee1f9a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5ee1f9a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8a0108b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8a0108b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f <span class=\"color-orange\">\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4<\/span> ?<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-349579a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"349579a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u843d\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><b> \u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a90%\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u5305\u542b\u8be5\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u503c90%\uff0c, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6837\u672c\u7684\u8986\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8be5\u8bf4\u6cd5\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u5728\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u826f\u597d\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u5bf9\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u7535\u7f51\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u89c4\u5212\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5ffd\u7565\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c140ab4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c140ab4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e32dd24 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e32dd24\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u5982\u4f55\u8bc4\u4f30\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\uff1f\n<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4454bbf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4454bbf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8bc4\u4f30\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u8981\u4e13\u95e8\u9488\u5bf9\u5206\u5e03\u578b\u8f93\u51fa\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\u3002\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8986\u76d6\u7387\u7528\u4e8e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u9884\u671f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5f39\u73e0\u635f\u5931\uff08Pinball loss\uff09\u662f\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u76ee\u6807\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5b83\u6839\u636e\u7ed3\u679c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u4e4b\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u884c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u8bc4\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fde\u7eed\u6392\u540d\u6982\u7387\u8bc4\u5206\uff08CRPS\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u5355\u4e00\u6c47\u603b\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5c06\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u5bf9\u4fdd\u7559\u6837\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u786e\u4fdd\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u6bb5\u4e0b\u6301\u7eed\u6821\u51c6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4146150 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4146150\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b983aa6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b983aa6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\uff1f\n<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eeaf6a4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"eeaf6a4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e<\/span><b> \u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u4e0d\u5fc5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd0\u7528\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f18\u5316\u4ed3\u50a8\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u5177\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u98ce\u9669\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u51b2\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><b>\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\u8fd8\u80fd\u91cf\u5316\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027 <\/b><b><i>\u5de6\u53f3<\/i><\/b><b> \u5b63\u8282\u6027\u53ca\u65e5\u5185\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fd9\u662f\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53d1\u7535\u6ce2\u52a8\u5177\u6709\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u76f2\u70b9\u201d\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u53ef\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e20fa73 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e20fa73\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-27cd8c2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"27cd8c2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u5426\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u5916\uff1f\n<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e779428 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e779428\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u662f\u7684\u3002\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e94\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u98ce\u80fd\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u8d1f\u8377\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6982\u7387\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff08<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5305\u62ec\u8bf8\u5982\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) \u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u96c6\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u4fdd\u5f62\u9884\u6d4b\u7b49\u6280\u672f\u5747\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u9886\u57df\u3002CalibSun \u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u9886\u57df\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u8d44\u6e90\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5149\u4f0f\u53d1\u7535\u672c\u8eab\u5177\u6709\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u6cd5\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p><p><b>\u6982\u7387\u9884\u62a5\u8fd8\u80fd\u91cf\u5316\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027 <\/b><b><i>\u5de6\u53f3<\/i><\/b><b> \u5b63\u8282\u6027\u53ca\u65e5\u5185\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fd9\u662f\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53d1\u7535\u6ce2\u52a8\u5177\u6709\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u76f2\u70b9\u201d\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u53ef\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3b7293c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3b7293c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1d1b620 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1d1b620\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-05a3cd9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"05a3cd9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>\u4f9d\u8d56\u5355\u4e00\u503c\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u7ed9\u73b0\u4ee3\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e26\u6765\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ba1\u63a7\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528 <strong>\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>, \u592a\u9633\u80fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u548c\u7535\u7f51\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u5c06\u5929\u6c14\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e14\u8003\u8651\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u5408\u591a\u6765\u6e90\u6570\u636e\u6d41\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u5b9e\u65f6\u73b0\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\uff0c\u53ef\u786e\u4fdd\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\uff08P5 \u81f3 P95\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4fdd\u62a4\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u5e76\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u504f\u5dee\u8003\u6838\u8d39\u7528\u3002<\/p><p><strong>\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u964d\u4f4e\u504f\u5dee\u8003\u6838\u8d39\u7528\u5e76\u4fdd\u969c\u60a8\u7684\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u6536\u5165\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways of the article Deterministic forecasting produces a single predicted value, it contains no information about the uncertainty inherent in that prediction, which becomes a direct operational risk in variable systems like solar energy. Probabilistic forecasting replaces the point estimate with a full predictive distribution. Prediction intervals are the core output, defining the range [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecast-nowcast"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calibsun.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}