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Scientific research & development


For 12 years, CALIBSUN has been conducting research with the O.I.E (Observation, Impacts, Energie) center at Mines Paris - PSL.


Towards a new approach for practical economic performance evaluation of a non-grid connected hybrid energy system without storage with integrated solar forecasting.

For a non-grid connected PV/diesel hybrid system, a precisely designed Power Management System (PMS) with short-term solar forecasts could be utilized to reduce or even eliminate the need for an energy storage system. This work aims to determine the feasibility of this concept and introduce a new approach to assess the performance of the hybrid energy production system, rather than relying on traditional statistical measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).


Zhuang, Fuqiang & Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo & Carriere, Thomas & Gschwind, Benoît & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Blanc, Philippe ; 8th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (2022).

Planning of cleaning operations based on monitoring and modeling of photovoltaic module soiling.

We propose a methodology to calibrate DustIQ data based on available measurements from all monitored photovoltaic installations, and then we develop a decision-making model that takes into account local weather conditions to determine whether a photovoltaic installation should be cleaned at a given time or not.


Thomas Carrière, Jean Catry, Alexandre Boilley ; 8th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (2022) ; pages 1401 - 1405

A new approach for probabilistic solar forecasting using satellite-based cloud motion vectors.

Probabilistic solar forecasting is becoming increasingly important for the integration of photovoltaic (PV) energy. However, for short-term applications, estimating the uncertainty of forecasts is challenging and often delegated to statistical models. To address this limitation, this work proposes an approach that combines physical and statistical foundations and leverages clear-sky index and cloud motion vectors (CMV) derived from satellite data, both traditionally used for deterministic forecasting.


Thomas Carrière, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Fuqiang Zhuang, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, and Philippe Blanc; Energies (2021) 14 ; page 4951.

Characterization of convergence and robustness of the Kernel density mapping method for site adaptation of global horizontal irradiation in Western Europe.

In this article, our focus is on Western Europe, and we propose the use of ground-based measurements of global horizontal irradiation (GHI) combined with a Kernel density mapping algorithm to calibrate several satellite-based databases (Solargis, HelioClim-3, and CAMS Radiation). We then demonstrate that their biases can be reduced from approximately ±3% to 0.5%.


Loïc Yezeguelian, Christophe Vernay, Thomas Carrière, Philippe Blanc. 38th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy – Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC 2021), Sep 2021

Combined operation strategies of PV/storage systems integrated into electricity markets.

This study proposes an approach that considers the aging of the BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) both at the day-ahead level and in the real-time control of the BESS by modeling the cost associated with BESS usage.


Thomas Carriere, Christophe Vernay, Sebastien Pitaval, Francois-Pascal Neirac, George Kariniotakis ; IET Renewable Power Generation, Volume 14 (2020) ; pages 71-79

Towards a simple and robust probabilistic analysis of solar variability based on the probability of transition between sky state variability classes.

Solar variability is the main cause of grid instability when establishing a hybrid (PV/Diesel) power plant. This work aims to characterize solar variability and predictability in specific areas in order to find the most suitable solution and assess the potential for constructing a hybrid power plant.


Fuqiang Zhuang, Philippe Salvado, Jean-Philippe Mangione, Sébastien Pitaval, Christophe Vernay, et al. ; EU PVSEC (2020)

A new approach for continuous probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power across multiple time horizons.

In this article, we address the uncertainty of future production from a photovoltaic (PV) power plant by proposing a novel transparent probabilistic forecasting approach capable of covering multiple forecast horizons. It is based on the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) model but adapted to incorporate the most relevant data for each forecast horizon from a set of available input data. It is designed to be able to start at any time of the day, for any forecast horizon, making it well-suited for applications such as continuous trading.


Thomas Carriere, Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, Georges Kariniotakis ; IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2020, Volume 11 (3), pages .2281 — 2292.

An integrated approach for value-driven energy forecasting and data-informed decision-making. Application to renewable energy trading.

In this article, we propose a novel data-driven approach in which the two stages of forecasting and decision-making are unified into a single function that is optimized considering a single criterion, namely the value presented in the decision-making process.


Thomas Carriere, Georges Kariniotakis. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2019, 10 (6), pages 6933 – 6944

The sizing of a PV/battery system through stochastic control and aggregation of installations.

The objective of this work is to reduce the required storage capacity to operate a coupled photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) in an electricity market while maintaining the same level of performance. This is achieved through stochastic control and aggregation of installations.


Thomas Carriere, Christophe Vernay, Sebastien Pitaval, Franccois-Pascal Neirac, George Kariniotakis ; 36th European PV Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC) ; Sep 2019

Strategies for the combined operation of PV/Storage systems integrated into electricity markets.

In this article, we compare several management strategies for a photovoltaic plant coupled with a battery energy storage system (BESS) in a market environment. These strategies are obtained through stochastic optimization using a model predictive control (MPC) approach. The article proposes an approach that takes into account the aging of the BESS, both at the day-ahead level and in real-time BESS control, by modeling the cost associated with the BESS usage.


Thomas Carriere, Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, François-Pascal Neirac, Georges Kariniotakis ; 11th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER (2018).

Innovative simulation tools for comprehensive and synthetic characterization of solar glare phenomena for the design and administrative processing of large-scale photovoltaic power plants.

These studies, presented through a case study, aim to provide innovative and generic simulation tools to photovoltaic stakeholders in order to address the issue of glare in the development of their projects. The analysis of glare is conducted to characterize the occurrences of glare identified through a comprehensive set of physical parameters: day and time of occurrence throughout the year, angle between the reflected ray and the user's field of vision, etc.


C. Vernay, A.M. Realpe, D. de Gabaï, S. Pitaval ; Solar ; Energy Conference and Exhibition (EUPVSEC2017) ; Sep 2017 ; pages 2218-2222.

Comparative analysis of five typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets dedicated to concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems.

This article presents a comparative analysis of different typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets applied to a concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) system. Using 18 years of high-quality ground-based meteorological and pyranometric measurements, five types of TMY datasets were generated using varying time periods and different methodologies.


Ana M. Realpe, Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, Camille Lenoir, Philippe Blanc ; Energy Procedia ; Volume 97 (2016) ; Pages 108-115,

Examination of satellite-based surface solar irradiance databases for engineering, financing, and operation of photovoltaic systems.

This article explores the possibilities offered by satellite-based surface solar irradiance databases for stakeholders in the photovoltaic sector, from engineering and financing to the operation of photovoltaic systems.


Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, Philippe Blanc ; Energy Procedia ; Volume 57 (2014) ; pages 1383 – 1391

Characterization of measurement campaigns for an innovative approach to calibrating the estimated global horizontal irradiation provided by HelioClim-3.

This study explores the possibility of calibrating the estimation of global horizontal irradiation provided by HelioClim-3, a satellite-based surface solar irradiance database. The main objective of this work is to refine such an estimation whose performance varies from site to site.


Christophe Vernay, Philippe Blanc, Sébastien Pitaval ; Renewable energy ; Volume 57 (2013) ; pages 339-347

Calibration of long-term estimated global horizontal irradiation by HelioClim-3 using short-term local measurement campaigns: extending the results to European and African sites.

This article proposes an adaptation of a recent short-term ground-based calibration algorithm applied to long-term time series of global horizontal irradiation (GHI) provided by HelioClim-3 (HC3), a satellite-based surface solar irradiation database, and extends the initial findings for the southeast of France to a wider coverage including European and African sites.


Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, Philippe Blanc ; World Renewable Energy Forum (2012), Denver, United States ; pages 1943-1950